Two Months In, No End in Sight: The Iran-US War That Was Meant to Be Over in Days
From a blocked Strait of Hormuz and 3,600 dead to a trillion-dollar bill and a world choking on inflation — what Trump called a short, decisive conflict has turned into an open-ended crisis with no agreed ceasefire, no deal, and both sides still trading threats
Two months after the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran, the conflict that President Donald Trump promised would be swift and conclusive has settled into a dangerous stalemate — one that is reshaping global trade, spiking inflation, and threatening to reignite at any moment.
The Human and Economic Toll
The costs have been staggering. According to Iranian human rights organisations, more than 3,600 people have been killed since hostilities began, of whom over 1,700 are civilians. Harvard economist Linda Bilmes estimates the total financial cost of the war has already crossed $1 trillion.
The global economic fallout is being felt far beyond the Gulf. The IMF had projected world inflation would fall from 4.1% to 3.8% this year — instead, it is now expected to climb to 4.4%, as energy supply chains remain disrupted and shipping costs soar.
Hormuz: The World’s Most Dangerous Bottleneck
Nowhere is the crisis more visible than the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, approximately 130 ships passed through daily, carrying roughly 20% of the world’s oil. That number has collapsed to fewer than 10 vessels per day — a 90% drop that has sent shockwaves through global energy markets.
Washington has further tightened the pressure, warning that any company paying fees to Iran for Hormuz transit — even under the guise of charitable payments — risks facing American sanctions.
Iran Fires Back — Diplomatically and Militarily
Iran’s senior military official Mohammad Jafar Asadi warned this week that conflict could reignite, stating that Iran’s armed forces remain fully prepared and will respond decisively to any American misstep. He accused Washington of acting purely for show — driven by a desire to prop up oil prices and extricate itself from a mess of its own making. “American statements and actions are mostly performative and for media consumption,” Asadi said.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei appealed directly to the American public, urging ordinary US citizens to hold the Trump administration accountable. He shared footage of US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand telling a Senate hearing that there had been no evidence Iran was planning an imminent attack on America — fuelling questions about the legal and strategic justification for the war.
Iran Proposes a Two-Stage Deal — Trump Refuses
Tehran has put forward a new peace framework: open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American naval blockade first, with nuclear negotiations to follow separately. An Iranian official said this sequencing was deliberately designed to make a deal easier to reach. Trump has rejected the proposal outright, insisting that Iran must never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons — and that this remains the non-negotiable core of any settlement.
Experts are sceptical a deal is close. Professor Mohammed Elmesry of Doha told Al Jazeera that Iran has presented 10 demands while the US has put forward 15 — and the gap between the two sides remains vast. He noted, however, that Iran has taken precautionary steps to sustain itself economically, which may dilute the Trump administration’s belief that intensified pressure will force Tehran to capitulate quickly.
US Military Bases Severely Damaged
The conflict has not been one-sided. A CNN investigation found that Iran struck at least 16 American military installations across 8 countries in the Gulf region, with several rendered largely non-operational. Camp Buehring in Kuwait — once one of the busiest US military hubs in the region — is now largely empty and heavily damaged. Separately, Axios reported that US naval operations in the Gulf of Oman have cost Iran approximately $4.8 billion in lost oil revenues.
Regional Fallout: Lebanon, Yemen, UAE
The conflict’s tremors continue to be felt regionally. Israeli air strikes in Lebanon killed seven people on Friday alone. Off the coast of Yemen, armed gunmen hijacked an oil tanker named M/T Eureka near Shabwa province and redirected it toward Somali waters — the latest in a series of maritime security incidents shadowing the crisis. UAE aviation authorities, however, confirmed that air traffic has returned to normal after temporary precautionary restrictions were lifted.
The Bigger Picture
China has made clear it wants the Hormuz issue resolved urgently. Beijing’s UN Ambassador Fu Cong confirmed it would be a central agenda item in any future meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Trump — a signal that the world’s second largest economy, which depends heavily on Gulf oil, is watching the standoff with mounting concern.
With Iran’s internet shut down for 64 consecutive days, its civilian population under severe strain, a White House that insists Congress needs no say in any military action, and both militaries still in the field — the Iran-US conflict enters its third month with the world’s most critical waterway still barely open, and no peace in sight.
